Vietnam's GDP growth in Q3/2024 is expected to have slowed to 5.1% year-on-year, down from 6.9% in Q2, according to Standard Chartered Bank's macroeconomic update. The bank's economists also forecast a slowdown in retail sales growth, which likely eased to 5.2% in September compared to 7.9% in August. Export growth dropped significantly from 14.5% in August to 6.2% in September, though electronics exports may have shown some improvement year-to-date.

The external sector remained strong, with Vietnam maintaining trade surpluses, though the surplus is expected to have moderated to $2.5 billion in September from $4.5 billion in August. Imports and industrial production also grew at slower rates compared to the previous month. However, the impact of Super Typhoon Yagi, which caused significant damage in the northern region in early September, has not been fully accounted for in economic estimates.

Inflation in September is estimated to have fallen to 2.7% year-on-year from 3.5% in August, marking two consecutive months of inflation below 4%. Despite this, higher costs in education, housing, healthcare, and other sectors could put upward pressure on inflation in the coming months. The subdued credit growth, along with lower inflation and currency appreciation, may lead to a reconsideration of a planned 50-basis point interest rate hike in Q4/2024, according to Tim Leelahaphan, economist at Standard Chartered Bank.

Duy Nguyen compiled from theinvestor.vn