According to Vietnam Food Safety Authority (VFA), the export price of Vietnam’s 5% broken rice is currently at $502 per ton, down by $18 per ton compared to early December 2024 and $3 per ton lower than Thailand’s rice of the same type.
Since early 2025, Vietnam’s rice export prices have continuously declined, reaching their lowest level since September 2022. Particularly in the first ten days of February 2025, prices continued to drop sharply, causing concern among many exporters.
As of February 17, VFA reported that Vietnam’s rice export prices remained below $400 per ton. Specifically, 5% broken rice was offered at $395 per ton, 25% broken rice at $372 per ton, and 100% broken rice at $310 per ton. Currently, Vietnam’s rice export prices are the lowest among the top four exporters: India, Thailand, Vietnam, and Pakistan.
There are several reasons behind this sharp price decline. According to Phung Duc Tien, Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development, the primary reason is India’s decision to ease its export restrictions after two years of limitations, putting downward pressure on global prices.
Additionally, demand from major importers such as the Philippines and Indonesia has decreased. These countries had previously imported large amounts of rice to secure their food supply for 2024 and are now waiting for further price drops before making additional purchases. The Philippines, which accounts for over 46% of Vietnam’s total rice exports, is strictly controlling imports to support domestic production, leading to a significant reduction in orders from this market.
The price decline is particularly concerning as Vietnam approaches the Winter-Spring harvest, the country’s largest rice season. Favorable weather conditions are expected to yield an abundant supply, but weak demand from importers raises fears that prices may continue to drop.
To overcome these challenges, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has announced measures to support the rice export market. These include leveraging benefits from new-generation free trade agreements, organizing trade promotion activities through both traditional and online channels, and strengthening partnerships with traditional markets such as Indonesia, Africa, and China. The ministry also aims to explore niche markets for premium rice varieties, including fragrant and high-quality rice, in regions like the EU, South Korea, the US, and North America.
Additionally, the ministry plans to enhance market intelligence, maintaining regular reports and updates from trade offices in key markets to closely monitor global trends and anticipate policy changes in major importing countries. This proactive approach will help Vietnam take timely measures to stabilize exports.
The Ministry of Industry and Trade has also urged the VFA to work closely with rice traders and businesses to gather insights on global market trends. Special attention should be given to predicting policy shifts and government actions in key importing countries.
Furthermore, Vietnam is encouraged to diversify its markets to reduce dependency on any single country. This includes taking advantage of preferential trade agreements to explore new opportunities in markets such as Peru, Mexico, and the EU.